CS2 Skin Condition ROI Calculator
Compare the cost-effectiveness of different CS2 skin wear conditions. Calculate probability distributions based on float ranges and determine whether premium wear tiers offer genuine value or if lower-tier conditions provide better ROI.
Skin Condition ROI Calculator
Use this calculator to analyze the value proposition of different wear conditions for any CS2 skin. Enter the skin's float range and market prices to see probability-weighted value analysis.
Step 1: Skin Float Range
Enter the minimum and maximum float values for this skin. These are defined by Valve and vary per skin. You can find this information on sites like CSFloat or the Steam Community Market.
Float Range Visualization:
Step 2: Market Prices by Condition
Enter the current market prices (in USD) for each available wear condition. Leave blank for conditions that don't exist for this skin.
How to interpret results: The Value Score represents price per percentage point of probability. Lower scores indicate better value - you're paying less per unit of "commonness." The recommendation considers both absolute price and relative value compared to other conditions.
How CS2 Skin Conditions Work
Every CS2 skin has a float value - a number between 0 and 1 that determines its wear condition. This float value is permanently assigned when the skin is unboxed or received and cannot be changed. According to Valve's official documentation, the float system was implemented to create natural variation in skin appearance.
The Five Wear Conditions
Float values map to five distinct wear conditions, as defined in the Steam Community guidelines:
| Condition | Float Range | Range Size | Visual Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New (FN) | 0.00 - 0.07 | 7% | Pristine, minimal to no wear |
| Minimal Wear (MW) | 0.07 - 0.15 | 8% | Slight wear marks, excellent condition |
| Field-Tested (FT) | 0.15 - 0.38 | 23% | Moderate wear, scratches visible |
| Well-Worn (WW) | 0.38 - 0.45 | 7% | Heavy wear, significant scratches |
| Battle-Scarred (BS) | 0.45 - 1.00 | 55% | Extreme wear, heavily damaged appearance |
Expert Take:
"Notice that Field-Tested (23%) and Battle-Scarred (55%) together account for 78% of the total float range. This is why FT skins are typically the baseline price point - they're the most common condition for most skins. Factory New's 7% range explains the significant premium these skins command." – CS2 Market Analysis Team
Float Distribution & Probability
When a skin is unboxed, its float value is randomly generated within the skin's defined range. Based on research published by the PC Gamer CS2 trading analysis, float values appear to follow a uniform distribution within the available range, meaning each float value within the range has equal probability.
Understanding Float Caps
Not all skins can achieve all wear conditions. Each skin has a minimum and maximum float value (called "float caps") that determine which conditions are possible. For instance:
- AWP | Asiimov: Float range 0.18 - 1.00 (Cannot be Factory New or Minimal Wear)
- M4A4 | Howl: Float range 0.00 - 0.40 (Cannot be Battle-Scarred)
- AK-47 | Redline: Float range 0.10 - 0.70 (Cannot be Factory New or Battle-Scarred)
Probability Calculation
To calculate the probability of unboxing a specific condition, we use the overlap between the skin's float range and the condition's range. For more detailed probability mathematics, check out our Case Odds Explained guide.
The formula is:
P(condition) = (overlap with condition range) / (total float range)
For example, if a skin has float range 0.00 - 0.50:
- FN probability: (0.07 - 0.00) / (0.50 - 0.00) = 0.07 / 0.50 = 14%
- MW probability: (0.15 - 0.07) / 0.50 = 0.08 / 0.50 = 16%
- FT probability: (0.38 - 0.15) / 0.50 = 0.23 / 0.50 = 46%
- WW probability: (0.45 - 0.38) / 0.50 = 0.07 / 0.50 = 14%
- BS probability: (0.50 - 0.45) / 0.50 = 0.05 / 0.50 = 10%
Key Insight: When a skin's float range is restricted (can't reach certain conditions), the available conditions become proportionally more likely. This is why skins that can only be FN/MW often have lower FN premiums - Factory New isn't as rare for that specific skin.
Condition-Based Trading Strategy
Understanding condition value helps optimize your CS2 trading approach. Here are strategies based on different goals. For more trading guidance, see our Complete Skin Trading Guide.
For Budget Players
Target: Field-Tested with good float (0.15-0.20)
Low-float FT skins often look nearly identical to MW but cost 10-30% less. Use the Float Checker tool to verify float values before purchasing.
For Collectors
Target: Factory New with low float (below 0.01)
If collecting, FN provides maximum condition preservation and typically better resale value. However, use this calculator to verify the premium is justified by rarity.
For Investors
Target: Condition with best value score
Sometimes MW offers better value than FN when FN premiums are inflated. This calculator helps identify these opportunities. Learn more in our Skin Investment Strategies Guide.
For Case Openers
Consider: Probability of target condition
If you're opening cases hoping for a specific skin in FN, understand that you have roughly a 7% chance (or less, depending on float caps) of hitting that condition even if you get the skin. Use our Case Odds Calculator to compute overall probabilities.
Pro Tip: The "sweet spot" for most skins is often Minimal Wear or low-float Field-Tested. You get near-FN appearance at 20-40% discount, and MW maintains strong resale value while being significantly more common than FN.
Real-World Examples
Let's analyze specific skins to demonstrate how condition ROI works in practice.
Example 1: AK-47 | Vulcan (Covert)
Float Range: 0.00 - 1.00 (all conditions available)
Market Prices (approximate):
- FN: $220 (Premium: +175%)
- MW: $95 (Premium: +19%)
- FT: $80 (Baseline)
- WW: $70 (Discount: -13%)
- BS: $60 (Discount: -25%)
Analysis: The FN premium of 175% is significant, but FN Vulcans look dramatically cleaner than other conditions due to the large solid color areas. For this skin, FN may be worth the premium if visual quality matters to you.
Example 2: AWP | Asiimov (Covert)
Float Range: 0.18 - 1.00 (FN and MW impossible)
Market Prices (approximate):
- FT: $90 (Best available condition)
- WW: $75 (Discount: -17%)
- BS: $60 (Discount: -33%)
Analysis: Since FN/MW don't exist, FT commands a premium as the best possible condition. Low-float FT (around 0.18-0.20) is the target for collectors and often sells for +10-20% above average FT price.
Example 3: Budget Skin - P250 | Muertos (Restricted)
Float Range: 0.00 - 0.72
Market Prices (approximate):
- FN: $1.50 (Premium: +50%)
- MW: $1.10 (Premium: +10%)
- FT: $1.00 (Baseline)
- WW: $0.85 (Discount: -15%)
Analysis: For budget skins, the absolute price differences are small. A 50% premium on FN is only $0.50 - often worth it for the best condition if you'll use this skin long-term.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Factory New always worth the premium?
Not necessarily. This calculator helps you determine when FN offers genuine value versus when it's overpriced relative to probability. For skins where FN is extremely rare (tight float caps), the premium is often justified. For standard 0.00-1.00 skins, MW might offer better value.
How accurate are the probability calculations?
Our calculations assume uniform float distribution within the skin's range, which matches observed data from major trading platforms. Actual results may vary slightly due to Valve's specific RNG implementation, but the probabilities are mathematically accurate based on available information.
Does this work for trade-ups?
Trade-ups have a different float calculation that averages input skin floats. Use our Trade-Up Float Calculator to predict trade-up output conditions. This calculator is for comparing prices of existing skins on the market.
Why are some conditions missing prices?
Many skins have restricted float ranges that make certain conditions impossible. If a skin can't spawn in FN (float cap above 0.00), leave that field blank. The calculator will automatically adjust probability calculations.
What's a good Value Score?
Lower is better - it means you're paying less per percentage point of probability. However, context matters: FN will always have a higher Value Score due to its rarity, but that doesn't mean it's "bad value" if you want the best condition. Use this as one data point alongside your personal preferences.
Should I always buy the lowest Value Score condition?
Not necessarily. The Value Score measures price efficiency, but you should also consider visual quality, resale value, and personal preference. A collector might happily pay the FN premium, while a budget player might optimize for Value Score.
Related CS2 Tools
Explore our other CS2 skin analysis tools to make more informed decisions:
- CS2 Float Checker - Analyze any skin's float value and condition ranking
- Float Rarity Calculator - Calculate how rare your skin's float value is
- Wear Range Calculator - See which conditions are achievable for any skin
- Trade-Up Float Calculator - Predict output floats from trade-up contracts
- Case vs Buy Calculator - Compare opening cases versus buying skins directly
- All CS2 Tools - Browse our complete collection of CS2 calculators and resources
Final Expert Perspective:
"Understanding condition economics is fundamental to smart CS2 trading. The premium for Factory New isn't just about visual quality - it represents scarcity, collector demand, and investment potential. However, these premiums aren't always rational. Use data-driven tools like this calculator to identify when premiums are justified by probability and when they're inflated by hype. The best trades happen when you understand both the math and the market psychology." – CS2 Market Analysis Team